COP29, this year’s UN climate conference in Baku, has wrapped up, and like every climate summit, it left behind a mix of excitement, frustration, and cautious optimism. Ita Kettleborough, Director at the Energy Transitions Commission, summed it up perfectly on her return: “This COP was really a COP of two quite different stories.”
On one hand, global momentum for clean energy technologies has never been stronger. “The energy transition is starting to move in countries across the world, and the sheer scale and pace of the technological rollout, especially of some of the key technologies that will drive the transition—so solar, batteries, EVs, wind—are really increasing,” she said.
From Indonesia’s coal phase-out commitment to China’s accelerated emissions peak, tangible progress was evident.
Yet, at the negotiation table, the story was less encouraging. “It was more of an inching forward and holding ground,” Kettleborough reflected.
Technological Momentum Across Borders
One of the high points of COP29 was the range of ambitious commitments. Indonesia’s announcement to phase out coal use in power generation by 2040 stood out. Given that Indonesia is the fifth-biggest operator of coal-fired power plants in the world, “that was a really exciting commitment,” Kettleborough noted. Similarly, China’s modeling showed it would peak power system emissions by 2025 or 2026, five years ahead of schedule.
Countries like the UK also showcased strong ambitions, including a “2030 mission to decarbonize its power systems”. These commitments reflect growing confidence that “fossil-free power systems are in reach,” not just in developed economies but increasingly across emerging markets.
Climate Finance: Progress Without Clarity
Climate finance remains a cornerstone of global climate action. This year’s key outcome was the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which set an annual target to mobilize $1.3 trillion to help low- and middle-income countries address climate change. But high-income nations only gave a concrete commitment to pay $300 billion.
While these numbers were significant, Kettleborough pointed to a critical shortfall: “It’s not clear— is that public or private? It’s not clear if it’s concessional or grant.” This lack of detail risks repeating the challenges of the original $100 billion target set under the Paris Agreement, where vague language hindered effective implementation and she emphasized the need for clarity: “Some of the money that needs to flow into low and emerging economies is investment in new forms of power generation that will provide a return … but that isn’t the only type of finance.” Alongside private investments, concessional finance and grants will be essential to address the investment risks and high capital costs that exist in many countries.
Representatives of indigenous peoples on stage in Baku.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): A Missed Opportunity
NDCs, the national climate plans submitted by countries, are pivotal for guiding action. But COP29 saw limited progress on this front. “We were hoping for another outcome. We were hoping from Baku that there perhaps would be more NDCs announced early. In the end, we didn’t see very many NDCs at all,” Kettleborough said.
Clear, granular NDCs with sector-specific targets are vital to mobilize private investment. “Very clear policy commitments and targets [like Indonesia’s coal power announcement] … give [investors] the certainty they need. They’re going to see that this is something that they can invest in,” Kettleborough explained.
Looking ahead, the expectation is that countries will submit stronger and more detailed NDCs before the February deadline, potentially unlocking greater financial flows.
“We probably didn’t make as much progress as I was really hoping that we could”
Challenges and Bright Spots
Reflecting on the summit, Kettleborough described it as “a mixed bag.” While the geopolitical context and logistical challenges of the negotiations were daunting, she found energy in the “real sense that the energy transition is starting to move” globally. From decarbonizing Brazil’s fertilizer industry to innovative grid and storage solutions, COP29 highlighted tangible actions being taken across countries.
At the same time, the slow pace of negotiations was a frustration. “We probably didn’t make as much progress as I was really hoping that we could,” she admitted.
Looking Ahead to COP30 in Brazil
She was more optimistic about next year’s summit, COP30, which will be held in Belém, Brazil. With more time to prepare – Baku only had 11 months – Brazil’s leadership could foster a more inclusive and ambitious summit. “The Brazilians have known that they were hosting COP30 for a while. They’re already mobilizing for that to be really successful,” Kettleborough said.
Priorities for COP30 include advancing Article 6 discussions on carbon credits, bringing clarity to climate finance agreements, and driving progress on commitments made at past summits. The focus on transitioning from fossil fuels remains a central challenge. “The transition away from fossil fuels is kind of where the rubber meets the road on some of this. And it’s the really, really tricky piece,” she observed.
Brazil, host of the next COP, has had more time than Baku to prepare.
The Road Ahead
COP29 showed that the global energy transition is not just a vision; it’s happening, albeit painfully slowly. There is much work still to be done!
